Alberta's Rec Room

I was all ready to write a post telling you that the by-election results didn’t amount to anything to get excited about, but then Premier Smith interruped my flow and announced another panel.¹ So down we go to the province’s Rec Room.

Alberta’s Rec Room is a homey place. Orange shag carpet and panelling on all the walls.² Curling trophies on the shelf, and nostalgic posters commemorating the Equalization Referendum and the Alberta Pension Plan campaign. A framed photo of a farmer’s field with EEE mowed into it. A faded, peeling “Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark” bumper sticker, next to a newer “More Alberta, Less Ottawa” decal.

The Rec Room is a great place to get comfortable and watch a favorite movie on the big screen TV.

The announcement of the Alberta Next panel feels a lot like watching a movie we’ve already seen. The panel is a bigger group with some interesting members (more on that below), but the topics of conversation are remarkably similar. If you look at the Panel’s new webpage, under the heading “Ideas for Discussion” you’ll find all the greatest hits: A provincial police force! An Alberta Pension Plan! Collecting our own taxes! Taking more control over immigration (to “insulate” ourselves from the “damage” of an out-of-control immigration policy from Ottawa)! Reforming federal transfers and equalization!

And — this one’s kinda new — amending the Canadian constitution. Or, more precisely, “working with other provinces pressure the federal government to amend the Canadian Constitution to empower and better protect provincial rights.” Me, I look forward to those unilateral federal amendments to the constitution, amending formula be damned!

All joking aside, it’s a troubling thing that UCP governments give Albertans the impression that amending the constitution to suit us is something that could easily be done. The charade of holding a referendum in 2021 about taking equalization out of the constitution created an unreasonable expectation among Albertans that — predictably — yielded no change, constitutional or otherwise. I suppose there’s nothing wrong with asking Albertans what kinds of changes they would like to see to the Canadian constitution, but it’s at best misleading to give them the impression that it’s within the authority of the federal government to grant these wishes.

I do, however, have to give Premier Smith credit on one front. By convincing Adam Legge of the Business Council of Alberta and Trevor Tombe of the University of Calgary to join the panel, she has effectively neutralized two highly credible voices that have sometimes been critical. Legge has spoken out about how businesses in the province don’t want separation. Tombe has run the numbers on the Alberta Pension Plan and has pointed out the flaws in the government’s math.

Now, in the months leading up to a probable referendum on separation, Smith has sidelined two of the most credible voices best positioned to offer analysis of the potential economic costs of secession.

I’m struggling to understand what would have motivated either of them to head down to the Rec Room. If they’re telling themselves that they’ll be able to talk the Premier into redecorating, I think they’re going to be disappointed. This isn’t an exercise in moving forward; it’s an effort to bolster the Premier’s political fortunes by keeping Albertans angry at Ottawa instead of confronting the challenges the province will face in the future.

1. If you’re really into this, take a look at the spreadsheet here. If you assume that the Alberta Republicans could do as well in every district as they did in Olds-Didsbury, the vote split is catastrophic for the UCP. But they wouldn’t do that well. If the RPA did as well in every electoral district as they did in Edmonton-Ellersbie, the NDP caucus would be a bit bigger, but they’d still be in Opposition. If you assume the NDP loses 11 points everywhere (as they did in Ellersbie), it’s pretty bad news for them. If you split the difference between their -11 in E-E and their +2 in Strathcona, and keep the +3 for the Republicans, the outcome is remarkably similar to the 2023 provincial election. tl;dr - it’s a nothingburger!

2. I can’t recall who quipped, back in the Kenney days, that the Alberta government had more panels than Carol Brady’s basement. Hat tip to whoever that was.