Lisa, a very useful perspective I think is spot-on, right until the bold prediction you make in the last sentence: “almost certain to be a nail-biter of an election”. It may be true, but…
What fund-raising is best at is revealing the depth and breadth of the passions of partisan supporters - in absolute terms and relative to the opposition.
In 2019, 68% of the electorate turned out, well up from the previous election. That shift may have been a major factor in the different outcome. But even a small turnout can bring about a big swing, if one party sparks a much more passionate response than the other (e.g., 2015).
That passion will drive people to the polls, sometimes even without having someone knock on their door on Election Day. I recall on one ED going door-to-door armed with a list of tick marks - people who had already expressed their intent to vote for our candidate. But by the time I got to those doors, they had already voted or had just left to do so. There is nothing better than passion-driven turnout (for your side!)
These days, passionate supporters have more often gotten out to vote in advance polls, making the ED task even more manageable for the winning side.
There is still a lot we don’t know about the Alberta election. How passionate will Smith’s supporters be - overall and by contrast to Notley’s supporters? In each case, will that passion be more motivated by positive feelings for that party or by fear of the others winning? Either can be helpful but both is surely best of all.
We also don’t know how much cash on hand each party has amassed. Unlike in the US, this number is not public. Are there COH advantages to Notley because of how many quarters she has had a fund-raising lead in, or has she spent most of it? How much have the UCP’s recent revenue totals gotten expended on the leadership contest?
We also don’t know how much tap-dancing Smith skill will bring to shaping her policies and positions to suit the priorities of her base AND those of her wider accessible electorate. She could rev up the one, at the cost of irritating the other.
What we do know is that Notley’s backers have already stepped up big time. We also know that both parties are likely to be well-funded, so a big money advantage is unlikely to win the day.
But if passion is far stronger on one side than the other, a resulting large turnout advantage could make this election a sweep, not a nail-biter at all.
Morrey - I think you're right that the fundraising numbers reflect passionate support (or passionate opposition to the NDP). But it's a question of where that passion lives. If it's inner city Calgary, higher turnout might not win the NDP many additional seats. What they need is to identify and motivate supporters in those suburban ridings they need to flip. So for the moment I'm expecting a nail-biter. But who knows -- we still have 145 days to go!
I fear your count might be low by 527,040 (=366 x 24 x 60).
Lisa, a very useful perspective I think is spot-on, right until the bold prediction you make in the last sentence: “almost certain to be a nail-biter of an election”. It may be true, but…
What fund-raising is best at is revealing the depth and breadth of the passions of partisan supporters - in absolute terms and relative to the opposition.
In 2019, 68% of the electorate turned out, well up from the previous election. That shift may have been a major factor in the different outcome. But even a small turnout can bring about a big swing, if one party sparks a much more passionate response than the other (e.g., 2015).
That passion will drive people to the polls, sometimes even without having someone knock on their door on Election Day. I recall on one ED going door-to-door armed with a list of tick marks - people who had already expressed their intent to vote for our candidate. But by the time I got to those doors, they had already voted or had just left to do so. There is nothing better than passion-driven turnout (for your side!)
These days, passionate supporters have more often gotten out to vote in advance polls, making the ED task even more manageable for the winning side.
There is still a lot we don’t know about the Alberta election. How passionate will Smith’s supporters be - overall and by contrast to Notley’s supporters? In each case, will that passion be more motivated by positive feelings for that party or by fear of the others winning? Either can be helpful but both is surely best of all.
We also don’t know how much cash on hand each party has amassed. Unlike in the US, this number is not public. Are there COH advantages to Notley because of how many quarters she has had a fund-raising lead in, or has she spent most of it? How much have the UCP’s recent revenue totals gotten expended on the leadership contest?
We also don’t know how much tap-dancing Smith skill will bring to shaping her policies and positions to suit the priorities of her base AND those of her wider accessible electorate. She could rev up the one, at the cost of irritating the other.
What we do know is that Notley’s backers have already stepped up big time. We also know that both parties are likely to be well-funded, so a big money advantage is unlikely to win the day.
But if passion is far stronger on one side than the other, a resulting large turnout advantage could make this election a sweep, not a nail-biter at all.
Morrey - I think you're right that the fundraising numbers reflect passionate support (or passionate opposition to the NDP). But it's a question of where that passion lives. If it's inner city Calgary, higher turnout might not win the NDP many additional seats. What they need is to identify and motivate supporters in those suburban ridings they need to flip. So for the moment I'm expecting a nail-biter. But who knows -- we still have 145 days to go!
Why are the UCP so secretive of who is donating to their party? The UCP never have played by the rules anyways.