210,240 minutes
How do you measure, measure a campaign?
We are 118 days away from the writ being dropped, and 146 from Alberta election day. 210,240 minutes.
But who’s counting?
The NDP started the year by counting the bags of money they say they raised in the final three months of 2022: a cool $3.2 million.
On Twitter, Timothy Huyer put this in perspective: “The NDP raised in the *last 3 months* more than 80% of what the UCP raised in all of 2021.”
These figures aren’t official: we won’t see official fundraising totals for 2022 until February. Unless the UCP releases its numbers before then, we won’t know how the party fared in Q4 under its new leader. If it’s good news, I’m sure they’ll tell us!
Because of changes to the Elections Act, we haven’t had a good sense of UCP fundraising in 2022. The party raises money through its constituency associations, which only have to report annually on their fundraising. The NDP raises all its money centrally, so its quarterly totals reflect all its income.
Since it’s a new year, the parties can go back to their donors and ask for more in advance of/during the election. It’s a new tax year, so the political contribution tax credit resets. And those donors who give the $4300 maximum are now able to give that amount again.
Why has the NDP been able to be so successful in fundraising? Certainly, the foibles of the UCP government and the strong dislike in some quarters for Danielle Smith has been helpful, particularly in the past few months.
But beyond this, this seems to be the result of a disciplined campaign to build the party machine since the 2019 election. Fundraising has improved each year. Candidates have been nominated well in advance of the election. This will give the party a presence ‘on the ground’ that it lacked in previous elections.
And all this money will also give the party a strong presence ‘in the air’ (or on the airwaves, if those are still a thing).
During the actual election campaign, which will be called on May 1 and will last 28 days, parties will be able to spend a little more than $3 million each, and candidates $53,000 or so. But spending is unlimited before May 1, so residents of Calgary, Lethbridge, Red Deer and a few other places should expect to be bombarded with election advertising for the next four months.
Being able to raise and spend money doesn’t guarantee success for a party. Popularity and fundraising capacity aren’t necessarily correlated with one another. And saturating radio and TV with unpopular messages doesn’t change voters’ intentions.
But money and a strong ground game will be a huge asset for candidates in hotly contested ridings. It lets them pay the Rent on a campaign office and put some money into get-out-the-vote campaigns that could make the difference in what is almost certain to be a nail-biter of an election.
I fear your count might be low by 527,040 (=366 x 24 x 60).
Lisa, a very useful perspective I think is spot-on, right until the bold prediction you make in the last sentence: “almost certain to be a nail-biter of an election”. It may be true, but…
What fund-raising is best at is revealing the depth and breadth of the passions of partisan supporters - in absolute terms and relative to the opposition.
In 2019, 68% of the electorate turned out, well up from the previous election. That shift may have been a major factor in the different outcome. But even a small turnout can bring about a big swing, if one party sparks a much more passionate response than the other (e.g., 2015).
That passion will drive people to the polls, sometimes even without having someone knock on their door on Election Day. I recall on one ED going door-to-door armed with a list of tick marks - people who had already expressed their intent to vote for our candidate. But by the time I got to those doors, they had already voted or had just left to do so. There is nothing better than passion-driven turnout (for your side!)
These days, passionate supporters have more often gotten out to vote in advance polls, making the ED task even more manageable for the winning side.
There is still a lot we don’t know about the Alberta election. How passionate will Smith’s supporters be - overall and by contrast to Notley’s supporters? In each case, will that passion be more motivated by positive feelings for that party or by fear of the others winning? Either can be helpful but both is surely best of all.
We also don’t know how much cash on hand each party has amassed. Unlike in the US, this number is not public. Are there COH advantages to Notley because of how many quarters she has had a fund-raising lead in, or has she spent most of it? How much have the UCP’s recent revenue totals gotten expended on the leadership contest?
We also don’t know how much tap-dancing Smith skill will bring to shaping her policies and positions to suit the priorities of her base AND those of her wider accessible electorate. She could rev up the one, at the cost of irritating the other.
What we do know is that Notley’s backers have already stepped up big time. We also know that both parties are likely to be well-funded, so a big money advantage is unlikely to win the day.
But if passion is far stronger on one side than the other, a resulting large turnout advantage could make this election a sweep, not a nail-biter at all.