When Events Demand A Flowchart

Between the court decision and the movement on the MOU, it has been quite the week in Alberta politics. And there has been plenty of smart commentary about it: here, here, and here, for a start.

But none of this commentary has offered what’s clearly required in this fraught moment: a flowchart! [New readers: meet me in the footnote]¹

This flowchart is focused solely on referendum questions and what follows. I thought about trying to work pipeline scenarios into the mix, but then we’d need a 3D flowchart. Not gonna happen!

I think it’s a pretty good bet that there’s going to be a question about Alberta’s place in Canada on the ballot next October. The most likely question: Forever Canada’s ‘Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?’ Why do I think this is the most likely? Because it avoids the questions raised in the Athabasca Chipewyan decision while still allowing the Premier to claim she’s giving those who want to leave Canada a way to express their views. For the past several months, Smith has been Schroedinger’s Premier: both separatist and federalist at the same time. The Forever Canada option comes closest to allowing her to continue this stance.

Less likely, but still possible: engaging in hasty consultations with Indigenous communities and then putting the separatist question on the ballot as a government question. Would make the separatists happy, but also brands the Premier and her party as separatists.

Least likely: putting the separatist question on the ballot without first consulting. Would almost certainly result in an injunction, taking the government back to square 1.

Not gonna happen: No separatism-related question on the ballot in October. I suspect that Smith believes she needs a knife at the throat of the federal government to ensure that the pipeline doesn’t disappear. Without a question on the ballot, she can’t raise the spectre of an uptick in separatist sentiment if the pipeline falls through.

What you’ll notice about the flowchart, though, is that all scenarios lead to a separatist attempt to make the UCP a separatist party and overthrow Smith. The separatist movement has gained momentum. They’re unlikely just to pack up and go home if they lose the referendum vote, whatever the question. They’ll be mad, and they’ll take it out on Smith. In the unlikely event that they win the vote, they’ll need to be in charge of the UCP in order to negotiate Alberta’s exit from Canada. How successful would they be in taking over the party and/or ousting Smith? Hard to say. I don’t know how this would play out, but Smith has achieved so many remarkable comebacks in her political career that I’d bet on her surviving, though she may come out the other side an avowed separatist. It wouldn’t be her first floor crossing!

Enjoy the long weekend, everyone. I suspect that next week is going to be something else…

1. Back in the Kenney days, when the government seemed to be teetering on the brink, I started drawing flowcharts. It became a thing on Twitter, back before it was a cesspool. It was the #ABPoli inside joke. The CBC even got into it for a while. Before you @ me to tell me I could use software to make it prettier, please understand that it’s official What Now?!? policy that the handwritten approach is half the charm.