Total Recall

The beauty/tragedy of the Internet is that you can be on the other side of the globe and still (overly) connected to what’s going on at home. So, from my perch on a Tuscan hillside, some thoughts…

If I recall correctly

History, as they say, doesn’t repeat itself. But it sometimes rhymes.

Alberta’s first experiment with recall legislation was the Aberhart government’s legislation in 1935. Unhappy with Aberhart’s decision to attend the coronation in London while Alberta was still in the grips of the great depression, citizens in Aberhart’s own riding started organizing to recall him. The legislation was promptly repealed, retroactively.

All of this has me imagining a citizen initiative to hold a referendum on a matter of great political significance: the need for a true judicial inquiry into the hydra-like scandal around AHS procurement. Initiatives aren’t just for the black hat crowd, after all.

Recalling 1976

I was in elementary school in 1976. I can recall a class discussion, in my suburban Winnipeg school, about the election of the separatist Parti Québécois. And I have vague memories of reading news stories (on newsprint!) about the exodus of head offices from Montreal to Toronto. Because business doesn’t like uncertainty.

The Alberta separatist ‘movement’ appears to be comprised of two groups. The first group is the true believers who see Canada as an oppressive force and imagine a ‘free’ Alberta as some kind of conservative utopia (like, well, Trump’s America). The second group are the instrumentalists - those who see the threat of separation as being the key element. Their logic is that Quebec’s credible threat of separation made it the darling of Confederation, the spoiled brat of provinces. If Alberta mounts a credible threat, then it too will be able to expect its demands to be met.

Even if you accept the instrumentalist logic, there’s an unsolvable problem. If both Quebec and Alberta can call the shots, what happens when their interests/preferences collide? If, for example, Quebec demands no pipelines and Alberta demands many pipelines. Or Quebec demands generous transfer payments and Alberta demands low taxes.

This is where we see the Alberta sovereigntist movement rallying around some vague idea of semi-separation: A Sovereign Alberta within a United Canada. An a-la-carte confederation, where Alberta picks and chooses the aspects of Canada it likes and rejects those it doesn’t.

This vague conceptualization reminds me of the PQ’s notion of ‘sovereignty association’ — an independent state for Quebec but with a customs union and perhaps common currency with Canada. Quebec voters understood the peril of this vague concept and rejected the idea in the 1980 referendum.

For those Abertans who are pursing a referendum on secession as a bargaining chip, it’s worth recalling the significant costs Quebec incurred in contemplating a referendum. Would it catch the attention of other Canadians? Yes. Would it discourage investment in the province and limit diversification of the economy? Also yes. Would it intensify the political polarization in the province? Emphatically yes.

History rhymes, but it also teaches. The lesson of Quebec’s referendums is that the cost is greater than the benefit. I hope that’s a lesson the Premier has taken on board as she contemplates her remarks to the province later today.