Is anyone happy about today’s announcement of a deal to move forward on an arena event center for Calgary?
I mean, it’s not every day that the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and lefty policy wonks find themselves vehemently agreeing with one another.
Voters in the rest of the province must surely be starting to resent Calgarians just like they resent Quebeckers in federal politics: spoiled brats getting all the goodies because they’re essential to winning an election.
But given the immediate reaction, it isn’t even clear how many Calgarians want the arena deal at this price.
And Danielle Smith must be waking up in the middle of the night, haunted by the ghost of Margaret Thatcher shouting at her: “you went back into politics to do this?”
UCP strategists must have loved the idea of unveiling an arena deal with just days before the election call, thinking that this could reverse the party’s lagging fortunes in Calgary. But they may have miscalculated badly.
It’s hard to imagine that an arena deal will make a difference to those ‘reluctant UCP’ voters. They are more likely to be women than men, and their #1 issue is affordability/cost of living. And they might well be wondering if their property taxes will increase to help pay for the city’s half-billion dollar share.
What’s more, the deal gives Rachel Notley the opportunity to demonstrate that she’s concerned about being a good fiscal manager. I can’t help but wonder if this doesn’t allow her to position herself as the more fiscally prudent of the two potential premiers. It’s a bold move that reminds me in some ways of the Trudeau Liberals leapfrogging the NDP in 2015 by talking about willingness to run a deficit to pursue certain goals - a move that paid off for the party.
But to go back to my original question, yes, there are at least a few people happy about today’s deal: the guys who own CSEC. They’re laughing all the way to the bank.
This must be the mindset that convinced Travis Toews, that most hawkish of fiscal hawks, to quit. Danielle Smith is channelling her inner drunken sailor, frantically trying to buy the election before anyone notices her spending promises 1) expire on 1 June 2023 or 2) realize that the province is dangerously close to deficit spending again.
“Deficit spending?” Yup. Noticed the price of oil lately? Down into the $70-80 range. Not bad at all compared to the last eight years, but still…. The province is even more desperately reliant on oil revenue than ever. A $1 drop in oil prices can hit the government with a $600 million dollar loss! Rather than diversifying the economy, Jason Kenney’s UCP have made us more dependent—i.e., addicted—to oil royalties than ever.
We have to face facts, a thing Albertans do only when forced to—kicking and screaming the whole time. Oil revenue cannot guarantee long-term stability. Worse, decades of austerity government (a.k.a. “break it, blame the victims, and privatize it”) have left Alberta badly short of the good will and social supports to help people get through the lean times.
That’s why I expect the next guv’mint—no matter WHO wins—to cut spending. Notley, I expect to cut some of the dumber UCP/ TBA programs, notably the R-Star subsidy-in-all-but-name. Hopefully Notley will again cut agencies, boards and commissions—starting with the War Room, and Alberta Energy Regulator second in line. Firing AER’s entire senior management and bringing the departments back into the Environment ministry would be a good start.
If, God forbid, Smith’s UCP/TBA frankenparty wins, we’ll be in even bigger trouble. Smith’s ministers must have told her she’s over-spending. They must know oil revenue is precarious. As soon as their butts are glued to the Minister’s chairs again, they’ll discover that Alberta is in a deficit (“who knew? Oh the humanity”) and it’s time to cut, cut, cut again.
Silver-lining time for Calgary: the cuts Smith imposes on Smith’s election budget might save Calgary from a bad deal. If the TBA government takes back their grant money, the arena deal will fall through. Again. I dunno, is that something to wish for? If this is victory, we’re all done for.
As a Calgarian, I hope they name it "Murray Edwards Place". All the boxes will have carpets with Danielle Smith's head on them, in a pleasing & attractive pattern.