This must be the mindset that convinced Travis Toews, that most hawkish of fiscal hawks, to quit. Danielle Smith is channelling her inner drunken sailor, frantically trying to buy the election before anyone notices her spending promises 1) expire on 1 June 2023 or 2) realize that the province is dangerously close to deficit spending again.
“Deficit spending?” Yup. Noticed the price of oil lately? Down into the $70-80 range. Not bad at all compared to the last eight years, but still…. The province is even more desperately reliant on oil revenue than ever. A $1 drop in oil prices can hit the government with a $600 million dollar loss! Rather than diversifying the economy, Jason Kenney’s UCP have made us more dependent—i.e., addicted—to oil royalties than ever.
We have to face facts, a thing Albertans do only when forced to—kicking and screaming the whole time. Oil revenue cannot guarantee long-term stability. Worse, decades of austerity government (a.k.a. “break it, blame the victims, and privatize it”) have left Alberta badly short of the good will and social supports to help people get through the lean times.
That’s why I expect the next guv’mint—no matter WHO wins—to cut spending. Notley, I expect to cut some of the dumber UCP/ TBA programs, notably the R-Star subsidy-in-all-but-name. Hopefully Notley will again cut agencies, boards and commissions—starting with the War Room, and Alberta Energy Regulator second in line. Firing AER’s entire senior management and bringing the departments back into the Environment ministry would be a good start.
If, God forbid, Smith’s UCP/TBA frankenparty wins, we’ll be in even bigger trouble. Smith’s ministers must have told her she’s over-spending. They must know oil revenue is precarious. As soon as their butts are glued to the Minister’s chairs again, they’ll discover that Alberta is in a deficit (“who knew? Oh the humanity”) and it’s time to cut, cut, cut again.
Silver-lining time for Calgary: the cuts Smith imposes on Smith’s election budget might save Calgary from a bad deal. If the TBA government takes back their grant money, the arena deal will fall through. Again. I dunno, is that something to wish for? If this is victory, we’re all done for.
Mike J Danysh: Oil prices may even go lower. It's farfetched to fathom $100 oil at this point. The UCP's vote buying frenzy will come with a cost. The UCP will wind up doing more cuts down the road, if they are given the chance. Perish the thought, because the downtrodden, public healthcare, and public education will be what takes the cut. Infrastructure will also take a hit. We are no further ahead. Ralph Klein did very bad cuts, and we still did not overcome that.
Anonymous, your comments on oil prices and Con/UCP reactions are well taken. The "year of the price spike" was 2008. Oil went ballistic; in weeks the price jumped from ~$100 to $147 per barrel--a record that still stands. Three weeks later, the inevitable crash and recession had started; oil tanked at less than $30 per barrel. All in a matter of a couple of months. Alberta was HAMMERED by the price shocks and global recession. We'd barely recovered before the next shock. That one, in 2014, was caused by Mohammad bin Salman picking a fight with Vladimir Putin over oil prices. (In 2010, MBS picked a fight with American fracking companies, tried to bankrupt them and almost succeeded.)
Bad news, friends. We ARE on the edge of a recession. An economist (can't find the link, darn it) pointed out there are three warning signs: rising interest rates (check); bank failures (check); followed by widespread layoffs (stay tuned!).
Talk to your financial adviser, if you're lucky enough to have one. Make sure your portfolio is recession-resistant--even if he says you don't need to.
Furthermore, I believe people will be learning skills that they never believed they would need. Urban residents will be getting more into food preservation, and there will be prepping happening. People will be looking at rural properties, because it will be tough going in the cities.
I have heard that a recession is coming. This next recession will be brutal. It may even be a depression. Another unfortunate thing that could be in the works, is that war will be spreading. There's signs of that. What's playing out, isn't a pretty picture.
Years ago, around 2008, there was a wild oil price swing. I remember how oil prices were in the three digit price range, and then they were in the $30 range. At that time, I recall the Alberta PCs saying that oil needed to be at $80 for the provincial finances to just be getting by, which is basically a break even point.That's changed, and even $80 oil prices won't cut it today. At this juncture, I think oil has to be $100, or more. Placing bets on oil is a risky gamble, because oil prices can be like the weather in Alberta. It can be very warm one day, and freezing cold the day after. When oil prices go lower, it's not going to help. We may be on the verge of a recession, and those usually occur every 8 to 10 years. The UCP isn't going to help us weather that storm. All these pre election giveaways and promises, are coming with a very large cost. What are your thoughts on what I'm saying?
As a Calgarian, I hope they name it "Murray Edwards Place". All the boxes will have carpets with Danielle Smith's head on them, in a pleasing & attractive pattern.
This is classic vote buying by Danielle Smith, because she knows she is finished. The UCP will be going down with her. It's also a contradiction from her earlier stance, when she was the Wildrose leader. There are far more important priorities than a hockey arena. Healthcare, education, the less fortunate, and the environment, to name a few. Here is Danielle Smith's earlier stance on a hockey arena.
This must be the mindset that convinced Travis Toews, that most hawkish of fiscal hawks, to quit. Danielle Smith is channelling her inner drunken sailor, frantically trying to buy the election before anyone notices her spending promises 1) expire on 1 June 2023 or 2) realize that the province is dangerously close to deficit spending again.
“Deficit spending?” Yup. Noticed the price of oil lately? Down into the $70-80 range. Not bad at all compared to the last eight years, but still…. The province is even more desperately reliant on oil revenue than ever. A $1 drop in oil prices can hit the government with a $600 million dollar loss! Rather than diversifying the economy, Jason Kenney’s UCP have made us more dependent—i.e., addicted—to oil royalties than ever.
We have to face facts, a thing Albertans do only when forced to—kicking and screaming the whole time. Oil revenue cannot guarantee long-term stability. Worse, decades of austerity government (a.k.a. “break it, blame the victims, and privatize it”) have left Alberta badly short of the good will and social supports to help people get through the lean times.
That’s why I expect the next guv’mint—no matter WHO wins—to cut spending. Notley, I expect to cut some of the dumber UCP/ TBA programs, notably the R-Star subsidy-in-all-but-name. Hopefully Notley will again cut agencies, boards and commissions—starting with the War Room, and Alberta Energy Regulator second in line. Firing AER’s entire senior management and bringing the departments back into the Environment ministry would be a good start.
If, God forbid, Smith’s UCP/TBA frankenparty wins, we’ll be in even bigger trouble. Smith’s ministers must have told her she’s over-spending. They must know oil revenue is precarious. As soon as their butts are glued to the Minister’s chairs again, they’ll discover that Alberta is in a deficit (“who knew? Oh the humanity”) and it’s time to cut, cut, cut again.
Silver-lining time for Calgary: the cuts Smith imposes on Smith’s election budget might save Calgary from a bad deal. If the TBA government takes back their grant money, the arena deal will fall through. Again. I dunno, is that something to wish for? If this is victory, we’re all done for.
Mike J Danysh: Oil prices may even go lower. It's farfetched to fathom $100 oil at this point. The UCP's vote buying frenzy will come with a cost. The UCP will wind up doing more cuts down the road, if they are given the chance. Perish the thought, because the downtrodden, public healthcare, and public education will be what takes the cut. Infrastructure will also take a hit. We are no further ahead. Ralph Klein did very bad cuts, and we still did not overcome that.
Anonymous, your comments on oil prices and Con/UCP reactions are well taken. The "year of the price spike" was 2008. Oil went ballistic; in weeks the price jumped from ~$100 to $147 per barrel--a record that still stands. Three weeks later, the inevitable crash and recession had started; oil tanked at less than $30 per barrel. All in a matter of a couple of months. Alberta was HAMMERED by the price shocks and global recession. We'd barely recovered before the next shock. That one, in 2014, was caused by Mohammad bin Salman picking a fight with Vladimir Putin over oil prices. (In 2010, MBS picked a fight with American fracking companies, tried to bankrupt them and almost succeeded.)
Bad news, friends. We ARE on the edge of a recession. An economist (can't find the link, darn it) pointed out there are three warning signs: rising interest rates (check); bank failures (check); followed by widespread layoffs (stay tuned!).
Talk to your financial adviser, if you're lucky enough to have one. Make sure your portfolio is recession-resistant--even if he says you don't need to.
Furthermore, I believe people will be learning skills that they never believed they would need. Urban residents will be getting more into food preservation, and there will be prepping happening. People will be looking at rural properties, because it will be tough going in the cities.
I have heard that a recession is coming. This next recession will be brutal. It may even be a depression. Another unfortunate thing that could be in the works, is that war will be spreading. There's signs of that. What's playing out, isn't a pretty picture.
Years ago, around 2008, there was a wild oil price swing. I remember how oil prices were in the three digit price range, and then they were in the $30 range. At that time, I recall the Alberta PCs saying that oil needed to be at $80 for the provincial finances to just be getting by, which is basically a break even point.That's changed, and even $80 oil prices won't cut it today. At this juncture, I think oil has to be $100, or more. Placing bets on oil is a risky gamble, because oil prices can be like the weather in Alberta. It can be very warm one day, and freezing cold the day after. When oil prices go lower, it's not going to help. We may be on the verge of a recession, and those usually occur every 8 to 10 years. The UCP isn't going to help us weather that storm. All these pre election giveaways and promises, are coming with a very large cost. What are your thoughts on what I'm saying?
As a Calgarian, I hope they name it "Murray Edwards Place". All the boxes will have carpets with Danielle Smith's head on them, in a pleasing & attractive pattern.
This is classic vote buying by Danielle Smith, because she knows she is finished. The UCP will be going down with her. It's also a contradiction from her earlier stance, when she was the Wildrose leader. There are far more important priorities than a hockey arena. Healthcare, education, the less fortunate, and the environment, to name a few. Here is Danielle Smith's earlier stance on a hockey arena.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/news/politics/wildrose-wouldnt-fund-costly-oilers-arena-if-elected-smith-says/article4096604/
Great article!