After a year that included a caucus revolt, a leadership review and a leadership contest, the UCP government is roughly back where it started.
Yeah, the frontman’s changed, but you’ve still got Fiscal Prudence Toews on base, Low Profile Copping on guitar, SoCon LaGrange on vocals, Mad-dog Shandro on drums, and Deep Cuts Nicolaides playing tambourine. I hear they’re opening at the Sky Palace next week.
All kidding aside, the continuity in this Cabinet is remarkable. The only high-profile portfolios that have changed are Energy, where Pete Guthrie replaces Sonia Savage, who moves to Environment, and Jobs, where Brian Jean replaces Doug Schweitzer. Yes, there are more rural Cabinet ministers, but many Calgary heavy-hitters remain.
Earlier this week, I said I’d be watching the Justice and Health appointments closely. I was wrong in my prediction that Kaycee Madu would be returned to the Justice role. Instead, Tyler Shandro will be left to try to stickhandle proposed changes to the Human Rights Code and to urge caution and constitutionality on the Sovereignty Act. (Madu’s appointment as one of two Deputy Premiers must come as a bit of a disappointment to him, after his enthusiastic support for Smith during the campaign.)
I was surprised, but relieved, to see Copping remain in Health. He steadied the ship when he took over for Shandro a year ago, and led the most credible portion of the province’s pandemic response in his first months on the job. But he was willing to go along with the party’s vilification of AHS and dismissal of Verna Yiu. He’s probably better placed than anyone in caucus to moderate and redirect Smith’s grandiose plans for rolling heads at AHS, if he chooses to do so.
So why did Smith opt for continuity over change? I think she is starting to understand just how tenuous her position is. The caucus has already forced her to moderate her stance on the Sovereignty Act. She has had to apologize for her comments on Ukraine. She’s realized that the band will let her keep claiming it’s her show, as long as they get to play their set list.
So many men
No one has ever accused Smith of being a feminist, but even so it’s remarkable how few women she has appointed to her Cabinet. Four (five counting her). Four of the eight MLAs dropped from Cabinet were women (Fir, Pon, Issik, Armstrong-Homeniuk), and all the newcomers are men. And a man accused of creating a hostile environment for women is back in office.
After listening to her acceptance speech a couple of weeks ago, I opined that:
The interesting part was her talk of strength and compassion. She talked about looking after seniors and the vulnerable, repairing the government’s relationship with nurses and doctors, ensuring there are teachers and education assistants (and tutors?) for children.
There’s a gender gap in support for the UCP, with women less likely to be supportive. I think Smith has the potential to narrow this gap if she shifts to rhetoric (and action) of compassion. Smith’s an impressive communicator, and is believable when she talks about compassion. The question is whether she can set aside her libertarian, small-state principles and actually deliver on it.
Well, the question is answered. This is not a Cabinet that delivers on a strategy aimed at suburban soccer moms. That would require moving LaGrange out of Education, elevating Schulz to a higher profile role, and prioritizing issues around Social Services. We didn’t see that. Instead, we see Seniors, Housing, Labour and Status of Women disappear, so they won’t have a voice around the Cabinet table.
The path ahead
Smith has now positioned herself between a Cabinet heavy with Kenney loyalists, all of whom have more experience governing than she does, and her supporters, who were expecting Big Changes. It will be fascinating to see if these tensions start to show during the party’s AGM this weekend.