Introduction to Cabinetry
Now that we’ve all had a chance to catch up on the skeletons found in Premier Smith’s social media closet, it’s time to turn our attention to how she’s going to stock her Cabinet, to be announced on Friday.
Normally, Cabinet-making in Canadian politics is primarily an exercise in balancing competence with representational imperatives. Premiers want to be sure all regions are represented in Cabinet (which is why Edmonton’s sole UCP MLA Kaycee Madu is guaranteed a Cabinet post, no matter who he’s phoned). Some Premiers/PMs are concerned with equal representation of women or reflecting the ethnic diversity of their province or country. Others are less concerned about this.
In building her Cabinet, Danielle Smith faces several imperatives that add complexity to the task, as some of them point her in different directions.
The first imperative is to fulfill her promise to her supporters that she would prioritize rural voices. Premier Kenney’s Calgary-heavy Cabinet was a sore point for many rural party supporters, so it’s no surprise that Smith plans to include more MLAs from outside the two big cities. Expect Todd Loewen (whose supporters helped Smith win the leadership with their second preferences) to figure prominently. Devin Dreeshan might find his way back into Cabinet, along with Angela Pitt and perhaps some others.
The second imperative is to set the party up to win the 2023 election. Given that polls suggest that Edmonton is lost to the UCP and most seats outside the two big cities are safe bets, you’d expect that Smith would be focused on shoring up support in Calgary. But Smith is not a conventional politician, and has confided her election strategy to Rick Bell: she’s going to write off a bunch of Calgary seats and put together a narrow winning coalition of rural seats plus some south Calgary seats.
This isn’t good news for Cabinet Ministers whose seats are being conceded to the NDP. Health Minister Jason Copping, Advanced Ed’s Demetrios Nicolaides, Energy Minister Sonya Savage and leadership contestant/former Cabinet Minister Rajan Sawhney are all out, according to this logic.
But the third imperative points in a different direction. Smith must run the government. She has never held a Cabinet portfolio, and has a talk show host’s grasp of many important issues. She needs competent experienced Ministers in place to keep the ship afloat. By this logic, she needs the experience of Ministers like those listed above.
And the fourth imperative points in yet another different direction. Smith needs to implement her agenda, which consists of (1) enacting a now watered-down Sovereignty Act and generally stirring the pot in intergovernmental relations; (2) wreaking havoc at Alberta Health Services; (3) introducing human rights legislation to protect the unvaccinated. If she was in any way serious about the “strength with compassion” line she used in her acceptance speech (that I thought had some promise), she’ll need a Finance Minister who isn’t too hard line about controlling spending. Travis Toewes need not apply.
The key portfolios for agenda implementation are:
Justice & Solicitor General: As the government’s lawyer, this Minister will play a key role in assuring caucus and Albertans that the Sovereignty Act is compatible with rule of law. They will also be responsible for introducing amendments to the Human Rights Act to protect the vaccinated. To fill this role, you need to be a lawyer and you need to be a real Smith loyalist. (Kaycee Madu, step right up!)
Health: With a mandate to fire people and generally shake things up, Health will be a plum portfolio. At least until the system buckles under the weight of ongoing COVID and other factors. Here, you’d want someone who shares your vision and has some experience pushing through significant reforms over the objections of the public service. I honestly can’t think of anyone in the UCP caucus who fits the bill. My guess is that shared vision will trump experience. So, Loewen? Jean? Pitt?
The final imperative is caucus unity. A leader who won a narrow victory on a controversial platform with few caucus endorsements has to think carefully about how to keep their enemies close, and in Cabinet where they can’t publicly criticize her and otherwise cause trouble. She may be able to avoid putting Toewes in Cabinet if he says he isn’t running in ‘23, but she has to find roles for at least Jean and Schulz. I think it would be a smart move to put Schulz into Finance - it gives a relatively progressive Calgary MLA a high-profile role, and Schulz would be amenable to opening the purse strings in the run-up to the election.
Fortunately for Smith, Cabinet can be a pretty large group, allowing her to address at least most of these imperatives. I’ll be watching to see who’s left out (and is then available to cause trouble in caucus), who is appointed to the key Justice and Health portfolios, and what happens to the other leadership contestants.