We knew that Danielle Smith was likely going to win last night, but somehow it still felt like a bit of a nail-biter.
I wrote about how Smith’s campaign followed a populist playbook for the Conversation, here.
What I’d add to that, after seeing how the preferences flowed from ballot to ballot (see Trevor Tombe’s fantastic Sankey figure here), is that this was the revenge of the old Wild Rose Party.
Smith started with just over 40%, and got very little support as Aheer, Sawhney, and Schultz dropped off the ballot. Her boosts came when Loewen dropped off, and it was Jean supporters who put her over the top (though it’s interesting to see that Jean supporters were more likely to go to Toews than Smith).
Or, as I tweeted last night, preferences from the former Wild Rose leader were enough to elect the other former Wild Rose leader as UCP leader.
Smith’s acceptance speech was a fiery defense of her Alberta First approach, with some anti-vax mandate content thrown in for good measure. She reassured us/Canada (for what it’s worth) that she isn’t a separatist.
But I thought the interesting part was her talk of strength and compassion. She talked about looking after seniors and the vulnerable, repairing the government’s relationship with nurses and doctors, ensuring there are teachers and education assistants (and tutors?) for children.
There’s a gender gap in support for the UCP, with women less likely to be supportive. I think Smith has the potential to narrow this gap if she shifts to rhetoric (and action) of compassion. Smith’s an impressive communicator, and is believable when she talks about compassion. The question is whether she can set aside her libertarian, small-state principles and actually deliver on it.
Short version: if Smith can find a way to downplay the sovereignty act and the anti-vax message, and play up compassion, I think she can make significant inroads into Calgary. The NDP should not be complacent.