And there's the pivot

Yesterday, I wrote about the strategic imperative underlying Premier Smith’s plan to pivot toward the center-right where the bulk of Alberta voters can be found. Today, fresh off her by-election win, she executed.

Today, she released mandate letters for six of her Cabinet ministers. (Keep in mind, she has many, many Cabinet ministers, so this is partial transparency at best. But it is something). A mandate letter is the Premier/Prime Minister’s marching orders for each member of their Cabinet, setting out priorities they want to see accomplished.

Each letter starts with a page of boilerplate that set out Smith’s four priorities for the next six months leading up to the May 2023 election: inflation/affordability; jobs/economy; health care; stand up to Ottawa. As an aside, this is one too many - there’s really only room for three priorities on a podium sign, or in most people’s memories.

The selection of letters released appear to be intended to send some clear signals:

1. Inflation/affordability is truly a priority. AISH and senior’s benefits are to be re-indexed. Utility prices to be reviewed. Affordable child care to be produced.

2. Smith’s government will reverse some of the Kenney government’s decisions that were the most unpopular: AISH indexing and provision of more educational assistants in classrooms.

3. The child care deal with the federal government will not be torn up.

4. Smith’s government will be compassionate: lots of talk about children’s mental health, improving recreation and the arts, women in STEM and so on.

I’ve read them all, and what jumps out at me is that … there isn’t even a whiff of extremism to be found. They could have been written by any of the PC Premiers between Stelmach and Prentice. A mention of ‘school choice’ but no talk of vouchers. Lots of signals of re-investment and action on issues that many Albertans — particularly suburban women — care about.

Now, before you think I’ve gone soft, a few things to note.

First, there are some pretty important mandate letters missing from this lot. Like Health. We still don’t know what Smith’s orders to Health Minister Jason Copping were.

Second, there are issues of timing. Premier Kenney allocated the surplus before leaving office, so Smith will have to either free up some of the dollars allocated for debt repayment or the Heritage Fund or find money elsewhere. And when will dollars flow? Will there be new educational assistants in classrooms in January, or next September?

Third, can Smith stick to this script, or will she keep talking about consulting dubious doctors for public health advice?

Fourth, it’s not clear whether a few months of honey will make up for the sour taste many voters have about the UCP government on these issues up to now.

Right now Rachel Notley is leading in the polls, but she will have a harder time holding onto that lead if she’s facing this PC-version of Danielle Smith than the Wild Rose/Freedom Convey version we’ve seen up to this point.