The Bell Curve

Readers, I’m starting today’s newsletter with a surprising confession. It seems that Rick Bell is my muse; he has inspired a few of my newsletter issues, including this one.

While it’s tempting to see this as an Alberta politics ‘plot twist’, the reality is that Bell offers the only window into what the heck is going on inside the Smith government. And today’s column tells us to brace for a U-turn: Smith is about to pivot.

No more talk of COVID and the oppression of the unvaccinated. A billion-ish dollars to help ease the pain of the inflationary crisis. Real action on health care.

Bell talks about the pivot as reorienting Smith to the concerns of “severely normal Albertans.” In political-science talk, we’d say ‘the median voter.’ If you assume that political ideology is distributed ‘normally’ in a society - that is, like the bell curve below - then most voters are in the center. Dead center is the so-called ‘median voter.’

So the rational thing for a political party to do in a two-party system is to place themselves as close to the median voter as possible, because the more extreme voters have nowhere else to go.

Of course, this logic changes when there IS an alternative, or the threat of an alternative, out at the extremes. Arguably, worry about the rise of a further-right party kept Jason Kenney’s UCP pulling away from the median voter and heading further to the right while Rachel Notley’s NDP cheerfully parked itself dead center.

But wait! Isn’t Alberta polarized? Does the distribution of ideology really look like a dromedary camel, or is it more of a bactrian?

Good question! Here’s the answer (from the Spring 2022 Viewpoint Alberta Survey).

We’re not exactly normal, but we’re not that far off. Normal, skewed a bit to the right. A droopy dromedary.

This explains why the NDP is positioning itself as a centrist party, trying to appeal to the bulk of voters who position themselves at the center or slightly to the right. Those further to the left have nowhere else to go, so the NDP can count on their support.

Smith’s supporters in the leadership would likely place themselves over at the far right hand side of the spectrum, and on many issues that’s where Smith would place herself as well. So her ‘pivot’ is going to be all about leaving the far right behind to hit that sweet spot where the median Alberta voter sits.

Can Smith pull it off? Hard to say. Bell sounds a little skeptical, wondering if she can restrain herself from making comments about taking advice from anti-vax doctors and the like.

Beyond Smith’s propensity to sabotage herself, she also faces a challenge in undoing the negative perceptions Albertans have already developed of her, as Janet Brown’s poll showed.

And then there are the supporters - like newly disqualified candidate Nadine Wellwood - who will fight to stop the pivot if they can.

Interesting times as always.