Alberduh, the most serious wanna-be American province in Canada....sigh.
Has there been gerrymandering outside of the cities when the democratic majority of the population live there, have good numbers AND progressive mayors but that's still not enough to win?
Excellent data by Janet Brown and write-up by CBC but the CBC headline conclusion is much less certain to be true. First, if you go to her riding-by-riding extrapolation, in her data file, there are a handful of the 18 YYC seats accessible to the UCP with a very narrow swing in their direction and 2 that could take the 18 up to 20 with a slight swing in the other direction. Candidate quality in those tight races may also matter - see Glenmore and Elbow.
Second, if RN wins 18 in YYC, she will surely win all 20 in YEG, 2 in YQL, one in Banff-Kananaskis, and one in Lesser Slave Lake, totalling 40 before we get to the Industrial Heartland surrounding YEG. Anywhere from 4 to 6 seats are up for grabs there.
I think that we could see the next six weeks move the needle about 5 points in either direction, due to, say, a compelling debate, controversial talking points, powerful campaign ads, or differences in turnout led by volunteers on the ground.
Yes, the urban-ritual division could be painful unless the winner is lucky and skilled. If Smith wins about 10 seats in Calgary and the Industrial Heartland, she can have many options for urban cabinet members, assuming she recognizes the need. But many teachers and health care workers may flee the province, if she is not careful.
If RN wins, including Morinville-St. Albert, she will have Heather Shaw, cattle farmer, to install in her cabinet. Similarly, she has an ace candidate from Vegreville, Taneen Rudyk. Then she needs to deliver rapidly on her promises to rural areas, e.g., to renew the staffing of hospitals, clinics and EMS facilities in hinterland ridings.
Last point is the UCP/TBA candidate you mentioned - she has made a huge faux pas. Partly, because it echoes Danielle Smith saying on video that if you got to Stage IV cancer, that was likely your responsibility. Second, because Livingstone-McLeod has no business being a close race but she may turn it into one. Her opponent, Kevin Van Tighem, is an exceptional candidate who is pulling in large numbers to his events. Normally, he’d still lose, but when she openly tries to commit “suicide”, he may well take advantage. A race not to sleep on!
Alberduh, the most serious wanna-be American province in Canada....sigh.
Has there been gerrymandering outside of the cities when the democratic majority of the population live there, have good numbers AND progressive mayors but that's still not enough to win?
Excellent data by Janet Brown and write-up by CBC but the CBC headline conclusion is much less certain to be true. First, if you go to her riding-by-riding extrapolation, in her data file, there are a handful of the 18 YYC seats accessible to the UCP with a very narrow swing in their direction and 2 that could take the 18 up to 20 with a slight swing in the other direction. Candidate quality in those tight races may also matter - see Glenmore and Elbow.
Second, if RN wins 18 in YYC, she will surely win all 20 in YEG, 2 in YQL, one in Banff-Kananaskis, and one in Lesser Slave Lake, totalling 40 before we get to the Industrial Heartland surrounding YEG. Anywhere from 4 to 6 seats are up for grabs there.
I think that we could see the next six weeks move the needle about 5 points in either direction, due to, say, a compelling debate, controversial talking points, powerful campaign ads, or differences in turnout led by volunteers on the ground.
Yes, the urban-ritual division could be painful unless the winner is lucky and skilled. If Smith wins about 10 seats in Calgary and the Industrial Heartland, she can have many options for urban cabinet members, assuming she recognizes the need. But many teachers and health care workers may flee the province, if she is not careful.
If RN wins, including Morinville-St. Albert, she will have Heather Shaw, cattle farmer, to install in her cabinet. Similarly, she has an ace candidate from Vegreville, Taneen Rudyk. Then she needs to deliver rapidly on her promises to rural areas, e.g., to renew the staffing of hospitals, clinics and EMS facilities in hinterland ridings.
Last point is the UCP/TBA candidate you mentioned - she has made a huge faux pas. Partly, because it echoes Danielle Smith saying on video that if you got to Stage IV cancer, that was likely your responsibility. Second, because Livingstone-McLeod has no business being a close race but she may turn it into one. Her opponent, Kevin Van Tighem, is an exceptional candidate who is pulling in large numbers to his events. Normally, he’d still lose, but when she openly tries to commit “suicide”, he may well take advantage. A race not to sleep on!