Who would serve in Premier Smith's Cabinet?
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been thinking a lot about Mitt Romney.
Back in March of 2016, he was an outspoken #NeverTrump Republican, calling Trump a “phony” “fraud” and “reckless.” By November, he issued a statement saying he had hope that Trump was the man to lead the country to a better future.
What brought about this change of heart? President-elect Trump was dangling the possibility of appointing Romney Secretary of State.
Like Trump, Danielle Smith is an outsider. Her very lack of experience governing is part of her appeal to her supporters. And the more the party establishment tries to warn that she will be a disruptive force, the more appealing she is.
Most of the UCP leadership candidates have said they wouldn’t support Smith’s signature Sovereignty Act. Four of them got together and held a news conference to underline the point.
So this gets me to thinking about who would be willing to serve in Premier Smith’s Cabinet (assuming she wins on Oct 6). Remember - in our system of government, Cabinet solidarity means that Ministers have to publicly support the government agenda.
Leadership candidate Todd Loewen wasn’t part of the ‘gang of four’ press conference, and is certain to be in a Smith Cabinet. Kaycee Madu is one of only three (others are Glubish and Ellis) Cabinet minister backing Smith, and seems intent on staying in Cabinet. MLAs Guthrie and Neudorf would be rewarded for their early support.
But what would the many Ministers and MLAs who have backed Travis Toews do? Refuse to join Smith’s government, or set aside their concerns and serve if asked?
And that’s where Mitt Romney and the #NeverTrumpers come in. Faced with a choice between the political wilderness and compromise, they abandoned their opposition to Trump. We can expect to see the ‘anybody but Smith’ movement dissolve as MLAs tell themselves that they’ll help moderate Smith if they’re in the room, or that they’re doing the right thing by keeping inexperienced backbenchers out of Cabinet.
And, just like that, it would be Danielle Smith’s party.
(Thanks to Catherine Griwkowsky for catching my error about Cabinet support. Corrected now.)
Professor Young,
Thanks for doing this. As an Alberta expat who has lived in Ontario for the past 40 years, it is comforting to know that not everyone has gone mad out there. Keep up the good work!
But what would the many Ministers and MLAs who have backed Travis Toews do?
I'm gonna go with 'serve if asked' and 'shut up if not asked'. If nothing else AB politicians will place access to power, and not threatening the maintenance of power, above principle. That was what Smith thought she was doing last time and it blew up in everyone's face. Different specific circumstances, same general outcome this time I'd wager.