Naheed Nenshi’s landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race marks the beginning of a new era for that party. Way back in February, before Nenshi had even announced he was running, I argued that if he entered the race, he was initiating a merger between the Alberta NDP and his own urban progressive movement. Four months later, I’ll stick with that analysis.
Looking at both the Smith government one year in and the NDP leadership race, I’m struck by the symmetry on the right and left. What we see in Alberta is two charismatic leaders who have each mobilized their own base of support to capture a party’s leadership and then remake that party in their own image.
One of the significant trends in democratic politics, in Canada and elsewhere in the world, is the “personalization” of politics. Over time, party leaders have come to matter more, at the expense of the party they lead. In a personalized system, it’s the leader, not the party label, that matters most to voters. Party (or government) policy reflects the leader’s preferences, not bargains struck among different interests within the party.
Danielle Smith harnessed the rage of those who opposed the Kenney government’s pandemic measures to support her bid for UCP leader. During last year’s provincial election, she reassured voters that once she was elected, she “vowed to put those dark days [of the pandemic] behind all of us.” A year later, the evidence is accumulating that those Albertans who were mobilized into the party by their opposition to vaccine mandates and COVID restrictions still occupy a lot of real estate in the UCP’s big tent. The “injection of truth” event last week was advertised on the UCP’s webpage and hosted by one of its constituency associations.
Smith faced a significant challenge winning over the UCP caucus, most of whom had supported other leadership candidates. Since becoming party leader, she has had to walk a careful line between the promises she has made to the supporters who helped her win the leadership and the views of moderates in caucus/cabinet. After winning re-election, though, she has largely been able to chart her own path with relatively little resistance from caucus. The UCP is Smith’s party now.
By mobilizing tens of thousands of new members into the NDP, Naheed Nenshi has achieved a more decisive takeover of the party than Smith did of the UCP. Even so, he faces a challenge similar to Smith’s: he now has to bring together the interests of his supporters and the party caucus, many of whom supported other contenders for the leadership. Nenshi’s supporters aren’t likely to give him the headaches that Smith’s have given her. They don’t have a policy agenda they’re pursuing. All they want is for Nenshi to win the 2027 election and oust the UCP.
Caucus may be more of a challenge, as many of its members are experienced politicians who remain committed to a more traditional New Democrat worldview and may be suspicious of Nenshi’s non-partisan ‘purple’ approach to policy. But at the end of the day, caucus shares one important value with the new party members: they want to win in 2027. The feat that Nenshi pulled off in mobilizing tens of thousands of new party members into his personalized ‘movement’ gives him a credibility within the party. The Alberta NDP is Nenshi’s party now.
Personalized politics isn’t new in Alberta. If we look back through Alberta’s political history, we can see party leaders personifying their party and imposing their preferences as party policy: Aberhart, Manning, Lougheed and Klein were all party leaders in this tradition. What’s new and different today is the dynamic of two highly competitive personalized parties clashing with one another, offering contrasting visions of what the province is and could be. Strap in for three and a half years of lively personalized politics!
I would be interested to know how many of the supposedly "new" members who joined for this leadership race were former members, volunteers and long-time supporters vs totally new Nenshi movement folk. I don't think the long-time party builders / members necessarily know this information either and it would be premature to assume it's a total 'take-over' by non-NDP types.
I first volunteered over 40 years back and have been an on-again / off-again member and donor, long-time supporter, even with some of the issues I've had with party line / policies. I joined (again) specifically to vote for leadership that could build momentum, and am keen to see all the best strengths, people and ideas come together in a compelling vision with some mobilizing chops.
There are no more similarities between Nenshi and Smith than there are between the parties they lead. To say anything else reflects the same profoundly irrational "bothsidesism" found in ALL the media right now as they excitedly push for Trudeau's demise EVEN THOUGH HIS REPLACEMENT IS Mr. "Unfair Elections Act" himself, PIERRE POILIEVRE, a.k.a. "Skippy," leader of the indefatigably tone-deaf CRAP, or Canadian Reform Alliance Party that has further devolved into the CONVOY PARTY OF CANADA.
Where has our collective perspective gone? Why in hell are we acting all fever pitch election mode, American style, when an election hasn't even been called here, and isn't DUE for more than a year?! Could it be because the equally relentless campaign to "own the Libs" via the relentless vilification of Justin Trudeau has gone VIRAL, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that when something is repeated enough, no matter WHAT it is, an alarming number start to believe it, WAY more than makes sense, seemingly WITHOUT EVEN BEING AWARE of it?
Under the current BINARY political circumstances when one side actually has democracy ITSELF, AND the international rules-based world order that goes with it on the ropes as we speak, and a proven leader, PROVEN leader emerges, talking about the size of the sky and how Albertans identify most with that, NOT the very SMALL pettiness of "owning the Libs," OR building a "firewall" to separate us from the rest of the country, OR indulging persistently in some typical NDP narcissism, how is everyone NOT breathing a huge sigh of relief and reviving flayed, vital hope, even if relief is THREE LONG YEARS from now?
Bring on Nenshi's "urban progressive agenda" I say. It's either that or the REGRESSIVE one after all.
Oh, and about hating Nenshi because he comes across as "the smartest guy in the room?" Just more peevish conservative anti-intellectualism that denies YET another reality (their stock in trade), in this case the one where we are NOT all equally intelligent, some are far more so, and in this critical, existential time it has never made more sense to choose a natural leader.
Why does everyone keep forgetting that the conservatives are proudly, stupidly anti-science and apparently don't even think VIRUSES are real now, not to mention climate change?!
OBVIOUSLY that should disqualify them completely from governance, period. They present a clear and present danger to all of us.
They show us over and over why we NEVER talk about a "conservative democracy," only a LIBERAL one.