I spent a good chunk of today telling journalists some version of “beats me!” in response to questions about the NDP leadership race, which became way more interesting with Naheed Nenshi’s entrance.
Can he win? Beats me!
The best I can do is this: to win, Nenshi has to win on the first ballot, or at least come really close. He can’t expect a lot of second and subsequent preferences to come his way. People who are supporting Hoffman, Ganley, Pancholi, Stonehouse and McGowan probably aren’t going to have Nenshi in second or even third place on their ballots.
If that assumption is accurate, then it means that the Big Purple Machine needs to sell as many memberships as the total support for the five other candidates. And, considering that these candidates have a one-month head-start in selling memberships, it isn’t going to be easy.
Can Nenshi lure members away from other candidates, or convince some of them to make him their second preference? Maybe. Maybe the idea that only he can produce a win for the party in 2027 will be enough.
What might help him do this? One or two livestreamed all-candidates debates might give him the opportunity to show what he brings to the fight against the UCP. It might woo New Democrats away from the idea that he’s an interloper and they don’t need him.
What if the Big Purple Machine doesn’t deliver enough to get Nenshi over the 50% mark? The smart move for other candidates is to work hard to make sure that these new members don’t fill out a Nothing-but-Nenshi ballot. Those second preferences could make all the difference in this contest. My best guess (and it’s only a guess) is that Pancholi is the mauve-est of the other candidates, and might be best positioned to benefit from Nenshi’s entry.
And that’s all I can figure out about the new (democrat) math right now.
I should probably file this in the “beats me” category, but I suspect Nenshi will get a pretty significant number of second place votes from some of the other candidates.
Not being an NDP member, I don't know how welcome he will be to the longtime members. All of the candidates have good qualities and I would vote for any of them.
The question is who can get rid of the UCP? Beats me, though I think Nenshi has a good chance of rattling Danielle Smith and I hope he has many chances to annoy her. He can't speak in the Legislature but he is good at media and can come up with juicy quotes.
I do think he cares about serving the public good for Albertans, and Smith clearly does not.