Greetings, What Now!?! readers! I was busy with other things last week, and sat out all the discussion of the budget. But Trevor Tombe had you covered. And last Friday’s West of Center was both great analysis and laugh-out-loud funny in places. (I was listening on a plane, and embarrassed myself a little. I blame Rick Bell!)
This week, the legislature is back, and even though we’re only weeks away from an election, they’re going to be busy passing bills. Today, firearms! Next week, banning federal water inspectors?
So how do we think about whatever announcements, initiatives or legislation emanate from the Smith government for the next few weeks? Here’s a handy guide - there are four imperatives for Smith. Everything the government does for the next few weeks will fit with at least one of them.
Imperative 1: Win the “air war” - in particular, win over undecided/reluctant UCP voters in suburban Calgary. (The increases in health and education spending were for them).
Imperative 2: Get ready for the “ground war” - identifying and preparing to get out the vote in ridings where the outcome will be close.
Imperative 3: Satisfy the base, and keep Take Back Alberta on side. This has to be done carefully, so as not to interfere with Imperative 1. Focusing on an issue like firearms legislation achieves this balance — it’s a high salience issue for the base, but not for the undecideds, who probably don’t care much one way or another.
Imperative 4: Raise money. This is going to be an expensive campaign. Issues like firearms or federal inspectors might not win over suburban voters, but they do open wallets, and that money can be used to win over the suburban voters.
The NDP shares Imperatives 1, 2 and 4, but doesn’t have to worry much about 3. The challenge for them is not to get distracted by issues that aren’t going to capture the attention and concern of suburban Calgary voters. And to raise enough money to be polling like mad to figure out which issues do resonate in the ‘burbs.
Do anything to keep her from talking or stating any policy positions. Sounds like a great choice for a premier.
I'd add a fifth imperative: keeping Smith's foot-in-mouth disease under enough control to reduce "clarifications" to the absolute minimum.