Saloon fights - every Western has at least one. Chairs get smashed on heads. Someone always goes sliding along the bar. Guns are drawn.
I suspect that the next three or four months is going to feel like an endless saloon fight in Alberta-Canada relations. Both sides are “spoilin’ for a fight” and it won’t be pretty.
At the heart of the conflict is climate change and what, if anything, Canada plans to do to meet its international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
To understand the conflict, we need to look at some of the background.
First, the two sides in the conflict occupy different factual universes. Albertans are distinct from other Canadians in their understanding of the cause of climate change. A Leger poll taken last fall found that only half of Albertans believe that climate change is caused by human activity. (Yes, you read that right).
Second, Alberta produces way more than its fair share of Canada’s GHG emissions. And you can’t reach Canada’s international commitments to reduce GHGs without tackling Alberta. Of course, these aren’t simply a result of our ginormous pickup trucks, they are “dominated by the industrial (oil and gas, heavy industry, and electricity) and agriculture sectors” as the Business Council of Alberta notes.
Third, it’s getting hot. Really hot. The planet is more than 1 degree Celsius warmer than it was in 1975, and the rate of increase is getting faster.
Canada has signed the Paris agreement, and committed to reducing our GHG emissions by 40 to 45% of 2005 levels. Achieving this objective would require dramatic changes in how all Canadians live. And it can’t be done without dealing with Alberta’s emissions.
And so, here we are.
SCENE: The Alberta gang is sitting at the bar in the saloon, lovingly counting their money. In walks the federal government, wearing their Climate Sheriff badges.
In the next few months, the federal government will move from ‘discussion paper’ to action on capping and then reducing oil and gas sector emissions. The “discussion” hasn’t been about whether we should do this, but rather what mechanism should be employed (cap and trade, or pricing emissions).
The first principle that drives the initiative is this: “The approach will hold the oil and gas sector accountable for its emissions.” And the second is: “move swiftly and deliver significant emissions reductions in the near term.”
There’s a yawning gap between the federal government’s intention here and the provincial government’s insistence that its jurisdiction over natural resources means that it can keep doing what it’s doing, thank you very much.
STAGE LEFT: One of the Alberta gang gets up, turns around, shouts: “Electric vehicles my ass!” and hits one of the Climate Sheriffs over the head with a chair.
STAGE RIGHT: One of the Climate Sheriffs approaches the bar and tries to grab a plastic straw from an Alberta gang member’s drink. Alberta guy is too fast! Grabs the straw and shouts “you’ll have to take this from my cold, dead hands, buddy!”
Regional resentments and federal-provincial conflict are the stuff of Canadian politics. Everyone knows their lines.
Trudeau sits down for an interview, and says that Alberta needs to up its game on carbon capture and storage. Alberta politicos and columnists huff that 'we practically invented carbon capture!’ ‘He just doesn’t know anything about Alberta. He’s trying to win votes in Quebec at our expense.’ ‘Maybe Trudeau wants Smith to win the election, so he can run against her in the next federal election.’
AT THE BAR: One of the Alberta gang picks up a spindly Climate Sheriff and slides them down the bar, shouting “how’s that for a just transition?”
CENTER STAGE: The main Climate Sheriff and the head of the Alberta gang stare at each other, guns drawn.
CUT TO EXTERIOR SHOT: A grass fire is raging, racing across the open prairie toward the saloon. Indigenous person on horseback looks from the fight spilling out of the saloon to the advancing fire. Shakes head, turns and gallops away.
Not only is LisaYoung a “straight shooter” (sorry, couldn’t resist) with the facts, she has a wicked sense of humour!
I'd like to suggest that our first priority should be to transition Danielle, et. al., to the opposition benches.
Once the NDP regains control we can put more funding into public schools and write a proper curriculum. When the population is decently educated it will understand climate science. Of course the reeducation project will take more time than we can afford, so in the mean time the new government may need to stomp on a few toes.