Rachel Notley and the Future of Two-Party Politics in Alberta
Rachel Notley transformed Alberta politics.
Looking back at the 2015 election, it’s tempting to diminish her victory and write it off as luck. The Conservatives and Wild Rose were splitting the conservative vote, and the NDP snuck up the middle. It’s true that the combined conservative vote was greater than the NDP vote, but that ignores the remarkable growth in NDP support during that election. In 2012, the Alberta NDP led by Brian Mason won 126,752 votes, or 10% of the popular vote. In 2015, Rachel Notley’s NDP won 604,518 votes, or 41% of the popular vote. That’s more than luck.
In the 2015 leaders debate, Notley shone. (Even Rick Bell said so!) She came across as authentic and down-to-earth, making Premier Jim Prentice look stuffy and out of touch. She was Alberta and he was Ottawa. And Brian Jean was just hanging out on the side of the stage trying to get someone to pay attention to him. (He shoulda grown the beard sooner).
It’s also tempting to shrug off her very solid record as Premier. Elected with a caucus full of rather surprised MLAs with little or no political experience, Notley assembled a government that didn’t often stumble. She pulled off some remarkable policy wins (like the carbon tax and pipeline) and governed solidly, under increasingly challenging conditions. In a different political environment, she would have been able to settle in for a longer stint in government.
But Alberta is its own particular political environment. The price of oil fell, unemployment went up and Jason Kenney united the two conservative parties. Even so, Notley’s NDP increased the number of votes it won, even though its share of the vote went down.
NDP Votes and Seats, 2012-2023
Notley made an unusual choice after 2019. After a defeat, most provincial premiers step down as party leader. During the 2023 election, there were reminders of why this is the standard practice — Notley found herself on the defensive, sometimes being treated as the incumbent.
But by staying on, Notley was able to prevent (or perhaps postpone) her party’s collapse. The work that went into building the party machinery after 2019 was significant. Without the efforts to broaden the party’s base, raise money and recruit candidates with significant professional and life experience, the party wouldn’t have been able to grow its vote further, winning the largest number of votes — and the largest share of the popular vote — in its history.
The Alberta NDP is Notley’s party and we do not know what it will be without her. A new leader may be able to build on the foundation Notley has established and solidify two-party competition in Alberta. But it’s also possible that without Notley, the party will crumble and Alberta will revert to its historical pattern of conservative dynasties.
The upcoming leadership race will be critically important, not just for the party but for the province.
A word to What Now?!? subscribers. You might have noticed that posts are a lot less frequent lately. That’s because Alberta politics has become boring my sabbatical is over and I’m back to teaching and grant-writing and all those other things my employer values. I’ll keep posting, but not as regularly as I was in 2023.
Rachel Notley has always had integrity, something her opponents over on the conservative side know nothing about. For that reason alone we were better served by her and the NDP than the "just blame Ottawa" paleoconservatives of the UCP. Including its current iteration. True, her government was less than perfect, however I can accept honest mistakes a whole lot better than the overt, self-serving dishonesty of Jason Kenney and/or the calculating and well-documented duplicity of Danielle Smith.
Either the ABNDP ends up like the BC NDP after their shock win in 1975 or they end up like the current Sask NDP. I don’t think they die once Notley leaves because the NDP in Western Canada has a tendency to outlive their once in a generation leaders(the leaders who give them a taste of power for the first time). The ABNDP will also have the advantage of a solid party structure in the two major cities and other parts of the province which will allow it to survive during smith’s time in power. It will also allow them to choose more moderate leaders more often now. Also any potential challengers to the ABNDP are pretty much dead which will benefit the ABNDP to.