Making Sense of It All

Good morning, What Now?!? readers! You’re probably feeling bleary after a late night watching election results. I’m on the other side of the Atlantic, so I was watching election coverage with my morning expresso. Today’s post is a first take as I try to make sense of the outcome.

In search of a narrative

If we think back just six months, the narrative of the 45th Canadian general election was clear: Poilievre’s Conservatives were going to win a historic victory repudiating a Liberal government that had lost its way. And if (now former) NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had joined in to defeat the Liberals, that’s the election we would have had. It would have been Justin Trudeau announcing the end of his political career on election night, and perhaps not Singh.

In retrospect, Poilievre’s feverish efforts to topple the government last fall make even more sense. At some level, he understood what a Trump victory would do to his carefully crafted electoral strategy and he wanted to get out ahead of it.

Instead, the 2025 election delivered a result that — at least on the surface — doesn’t seem to change much. A Liberal minority that can govern with support from the NDP (whether formalized or not).

Carney’s Liberals won, but without the resounding victory that would have bolstered his efforts to deal with the threat from Trump. Even after borrowing much of the Conservative policy book, Carney was able only to deliver a few more seats than the Liberals won in 2021 (168 at time of writing, up from 160 in 2021), though with a much larger share of the popular vote (43.5%, up from 32.6% in 2021). (As a side note, the neuroscientists talk about neuroplasticity — the brain’s ability to rewire itself. Political scientists need to start talking about politcal plasticity — the ability of the Liberal party to reinvent itself ideologically, as required).

Poilievre’s Conservatives lost, but still improved their seat share (144, up from 119) and their vote share (41.5%, up from 33.7%). And Poilievre himself faces the not insignificant problem of having lost his own seat (or so it seems at time of writing).

Perhaps the overarching narrative here is that no one really won.

Poilievre: what now?

Poilievre appears determined to stay on as leader, a path made more difficult without a seat in the House. (Calgary Conservative MPs eligible for parliamentary pensions can expect phone calls in the coming days, I suppose).

Poilievre’s claim is that he succeeded in achieving the party’s highest vote share since 1988, and that these steady advances will eventually yield victory for the party. Ontario Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, who has been a vocal critic of Poilievre’s campaign, has made the point that Canadian conservatives form government when their leader is able to patch together a coalition of different conservatives from around the country, pointing to Mulroney’s coalition of Quebec soft nationalists, middle-of-the-road Ontario conservatives and more hard-core Western conservatives. (But remember how that ended…)

Poilivre has put together a coalition of a kind. When he took coffee to the Convoy, back in February of 2022, he effectively brought many of the PPC’s supporters into the Conservative fold. One way of looking at his share of the popular vote is to compare CPC + PPC in both elections. In 2021, it was 33.7 + 4.9 = 38.6. In 2025, it was 41.4 + 0.7 = 42.1. An increase, but not as dramatic.

Can Poilievre survive as leader? It’s hard to say. There isn’t an heir apparent, and it would be difficult to orchestrate a coup from Queen’s Park. Judging by the reports from Poilievre’s rallies during the campaign, the supporters he mobilized to win the party’s leadership remain active and enthusiastic. They would be important assets in a leadership review. How loyal is the caucus? No clue.

The Local Angle

What Now?!? is ostensibly an Alberta politics blog, so a word about the Alberta results. The couple of days when 338 was projecting 9 Liberal seats are a distant memory. Even with 28% of the popular vote in the province, the Liberals won two seats, exactly the same number they had going in. They held Edmonton Center (after switching in a new candidate), and lost Calgary Skyview (and incumbent George Chahal who ran in Calgary McKnight). Neither of these NE Calgary ridings — which looked like they were likely wins for the Liberals — held. Why? No clue.

But in my home riding of Calgary Confederation, it seems that Corey Hogan has won (though it’s close enough that there’s likely to be a recount). This is a reminder that local campaigns matter. Hogan’s clever messaging “Confederation is worth fighting for” captured the zeitgeist of the election and his positioning of himself in contrast to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was effective in an electoral district with lots of public sector employees (as it’s home to the University of Calgary and the Foothills Medical Center).

The Liberals haven’t had great luck with MPs from Alberta lasting in cabinet, so the newly elected Hogan and Olszewski offer another chance for them to get it right. And this will be important in the face of Manning/Smith’s separatist musings.

OK, that’s it for now. Off to look at some Roman ruins and eat gelato. Ciao!