Making Sense of Election 2023: It's Complicated

Alberta’s a complicated place, and this was a complicated election. In this morning’s newsletter, I’m going to take you through a few “takes” on the outcome and what it means for the next four years.

Alberta: Taken Back

At the beginning of the election, I wrote about this contest as being a fight between two Albertas, old and new. Last night’s results, both in terms of seats and popular vote, were a victory for the old Alberta.

Blake Shaffer’s excellent visualization of the results tells a story of Alberta outside the two major cities: overwhelming support for the UCP. These voters have a clear idea of what it is to be Albertan, and conservatism is a big part of that. They see the UCP validating their identity and are enthusiastic about what a Danielle Smith government means for them.

I think we can anticipate a narrative from TBA that they should get credit for the party’s win. After all, they mobilized their supporters to go into Calgary to campaign and scrutineer. Just as they have claimed credit for ousting Kenney and electing Smith as party leader, they’ll claim this election victory as theirs. (Academic readers: you’ll recognize this as the faculty member who greets each new hire with the tale of how they, personally, ensured the new colleague was hired. And now expect the new colleague to take their side in departmental fights).

There’s no doubt that TBA played a role in getting a substantial number of candidates nominated, and those candidates are now MLAs. So we have TBA to thank for a government caucus that includes people who think people who have heart attacks should have taken more personal responsibility, that Black Albertans are held back by “ghetto culture” and - when enough time has passed - that trans kids pollute the purity of the province’s math scores.

TBA will no doubt be a significant force within the new Smith government. Its policy agenda - as far as it is known - includes lots of confrontation with Ottawa (always a popular option in Alberta), some kind of acknowledgement of the ‘wrongs’ done during COVID (on advice of the Manning panel), and some smattering of actions grounded in the American culture wars. (It’s not going to be a great time to be in university administration in Alberta, I suspect…)

The Alberta Formula

How did the UCP manage to hold half of Calgary? We’ll have to wait for the full post-election analysis, but my strong hunch is that it had everything to do with reviving the Alberta PC formula of high spending, low taxes and rhetorical commitment to fiscal responsibility. I’ve written more about it here.

This formula is possible only if subsidized by resource revenues. If/when those revenues decline, government has three choices: borrow, increase taxes or reduce expenditures. Rhetorical commitments make the first alternative tricky; the UCP’s idiotic promise to require a referendum before increasing taxes make the second one near impossible. So at the first downturn in oil prices, we can expect health care and education to once again be offered up for “sacrifices.”

Two-Party Competition

Regardless of the outcome, the NDP has established itself as a party that can offer a credible alternative to conservative governments. It may be difficult for the party to maintain its momentum over the next several years, and it will likely face a test if/when it transitions to a new leader.

That said, the party now has a list of willing donors and volunteers. It knows where its supporters can be found in Calgary. And demography is on its side. Four years from now, Alberta will be more urban and more diverse than it is today.

Nothing is certain in Alberta politics, but I think it’s a safe bet that the transition from single-party to two-party competitive system will continue.

The Silver Lining

If you’ve read this far, you’re a devoted ‘What Now?!?’ reader. When I started this substack several months ago, I thought it was a short-term project, to get me through the Smith months. After the (then seemingly inevitable) NDP win, I would rename it ‘Boring: An Alberta Politics Newsletter’ and stop writing.

But here we are.

Alberta politics seems destined to keep on delivering zany plot twists, so What Now?!? will keep its name, excessive punctuation and all, as we find our way through the Smith years in Alberta.