It's been a year

One year ago today, this happened. Danielle Smith eked out a narrow victory in the UCP leadership race, thanks to support from Albertans wanting a more sovereign Alberta, a harsher stance against Ottawa and retribution against those who imposed restrictions on their freedom in the midst of a global pandemic.

Fast forward a year, and Smith is still Premier. That was not a foregone conclusion. It wasn’t clear a year ago that Smith would be able to unite the UCP behind her or win a provincial election. Give credit where it’s due: she accomplished both.

A couple of things have become clear over the past year:

First, she might call herself a libertarian and fiscal conservative, but Smith has no hesitation spending public money to assure her own political survival. Whether it’s an arena for Calgary and its millionaire owners or affordability payments for demographic groups that might be wooed to vote UCP, cash has flowed freely. And why hold back when it comes to government advertising? Smith’s government spent millions advertising their affordability payments before the election, and now are spending millions more advertising the dubious Alberta Pension Plan. Heck, they’re even spreading the wealth around the country with the anti-Trudeau “Tell the Feds” campaign.

Second, much of what post-election Smith is doing is for the benefit of one audience only: the folks who got her elected UCP leader in the first place. Over the past month, Smith has embarked on a series of potentially politically costly endeavours: the renewables moratorium, the Alberta Pension Plan adventure, the war with Ottawa and - coming next week - decentralizing Alberta Health Services.

None of these make much sense in and of themselves. The renewables moratorium is a direct hit on a promising industry. The Alberta Pension Plan is unpopular and, at best, will tie the government up in wrangling with Ottawa and the other provinces for the next decade. The war with Ottawa is an Alberta government staple and a political winner, but if the plan is to play a leadership role among the provinces on this, perhaps it would be best not to lead with stealing their pension assets. And the AHS reorganization is surely going to look like Nero fiddling while Rome desperately tries to recruit family doctors.

But taken as a whole, Smith’s fall follies make sense. In early November, the UCP is holding a convention. The folks that claim to have taken out Jason Kenney and installed Smith as party leader appear to have ensured that they will be a dominant presence at that convention. Registrations are so high that the venue has been changed.

And these folks are going to LOVE what Smith has been up to. They’re no fans of solar or windmills. They’ve wanted an Alberta Pension Plan for a long time, to stick it to the rest of the country. They love any kind of campaign that involves Alberta trucks in downtown Ottawa. And they are no fans of Alberta Health Services either.

So Smith will celebrate her first year as UCP leader and premier meeting with a mostly friendly crowd. The only potential fly in the ointment is the question of “parental rights” - Smith’s supporters surely want her to follow Scott Moe’s lead on that issue.

But what comes after the November love-in? Does the government of Alberta actually try to kill the renewables industry? Do they go ahead with a referendum on a pension plan? (First polling on the issue is out today from Abacus: doesn’t seem like all those ads have moved opinion very far). Do they really try to decentralize AHS or just make some cosmetic changes?

Only time will tell.

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If you’re planning a Thanksgiving dinner where pensions might be a topic of conversation, check out Jared Wesley’s guide here. He’s got you covered!