Even though we’re still (sigh) five weeks away from the Alberta election being called, and a full nine weeks away from voting day, last Friday felt a bit like the kick-off to the campaign.
Two cabinet ministers - Toews and Savage - announced they wouldn’t be running, the NDP released its “we’re not fiscally reckless” plan and there was another poll, this time from ThinkHQ.
Now, I may have said once or twice that this election is going to be decided in the suburbs of Calgary. Because it is. Yes, there’s a seat in Lethbridge in play, and some in the donut around Edmonton. But the big action will be in Calgary.
The ThinkHQ poll showed the NDP surging ahead of the UCP in Calgary proper, with 48% of the decided vote, to 42% for the UCP. (This means inside city limits, not in the Census Metropolitan Area, which includes Calgary, Rocky View County, Airdrie, Beiseker, Chestermere, Cochrane, Crossfield, Irricana, and Tsuu T'ina 145. Looking at the CMA, the poll had the two parties tied).
There are fancy seat projections out there, notably 338.com’s. But I got to wondering what things would look like if we just took the results from 2019 in Calgary and applied the swing across the board. Turns out it would look like this:
PROJECTION
UCP 7
NDP 19
But we have to keep in mind that the margin of error for a Calgary projection is huge, so what if we assume the sample was skewed toward the NDP? If we start with NDP 43, UCP 47, we get:
PROJECTION
UCP 18
NDP 8
If you’ve read this far, either you’re WAY too invested in the Alberta election, or you love numbers, or maybe both.
So here’s your reward: YOU GET TO PLAY!
I’ve set up a Google Sheet. The first page is “My Turn” where I’ve used the Think HQ numbers. But the second page is “Your Turn” — enter your projection of the popular vote for Calgary, and see what happens. You’ll find it HERE. Just go to the second sheet, and enter your projection for the popular vote in Calgary in the pink squares at the top, and you’ll get a seat projection.
Have fun, fellow nerds!
I think this is the silly stuff we do when we thing we're political junkies but don't have the b....s to door knock. At my age, I've more than had my fill with folks who know what's going to happen before it happens...............come out and work for a liveable future. We've lots of good candidates across Alberta and they'd love to have you on the team.
Seriously....people are much nicer at the door now than when I knocked in my child bearing years...the conversations can be rewarding.........and regardless of who wins, if we don't start having more of them, and losing our fear of each other, the future looks pretty bleak. We only have one planet to squander after all.