Friday Flowchart Frivolity
This week kicked off with Janet Brown’s Calgary-only poll, setting off a flurry of seat projections. This had some folks imagining a 44-43 outcome, which would be pretty remarkable.
Over on Twitter, Tara McFadden requested a flowchart to explain what might happen if one party gets 43 seats and the other has 44 and has to appoint the speaker.
I’m always happy to take a flowchart request, but first a reminder of Paul Wells’ first rule of Canadian politics: “For any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome.” This applies, even in Alberta. Well, most days…
So here it is, Tara:
Note that I had to shift the vertical axis, which normally goes from “low” probability to “high” to account for how unlikely a 44-43 outcome is. Someone is going to get momentum in the next few weeks. Surely.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
I love the flow charts, Lisa. Keep them coming.
You missed a scenario ... NDP puts up a Speaker candidate in exchange for an agreed set of legislative changes (bans on contracting out health care services to private sector, investments in education, investments in green tech, repeal of the Sovereignty Act or whatever it was called, and continued prosecution of all pandemic related charges) ... Danielle Smith agrees, hard liners leave UCP caucus, chaos ensues, the government falls and there’s a new election ... Round Two commences.
Or another scenario ... Danielle Smith, thinking she’s in the US House of Representatives, puts her own name forward for Speaker ... a small rump of former-PC UCP MLAs band together with the NDP to make sure she is elected, the UCP elect a new leader but, moving quickly to regain power, Smith substitutes the rules of Simon Says for Robert’s Rules of Order as the Legislature’s operating manual, multiple MLAs are barred from the Legislature for not saying “Danielle says ...” before speaking in the chamber, chaos ensues, the government falls and there’s a new election ... Round Two commences.
I’ve got others :-)