Abacus Data released a new Alberta poll this morning. What they find is pretty similar to what we’ve seen in other polls released recently: the UCP and NDP are in a statistical tie, but a lot of Albertans really don’t like Danielle Smith.
The Abacus analysis offers something the other polls haven’t though. (Did I mention Abacus CEO David Coletto has a Political Science PhD from UCalgary?) They split their respondents into segments, and have identified the voters who will decide the election: the “Reluctant UCP” who voted UCP in 2019 and are either switching their vote or undecided.
This figure jumped out at me. The Reluctant group are not fans of Smith’s “shake things up” approach. “Boring” is now a compliment in the context of Alberta politics. Danielle Smith is many things, but boring isn’t one of them, so it will be interesting to see what she does in the new year. (Rick Bell has an opinion about this…)
If anyone deserves a lump of coal in their stocking this year, it’s Elon Musk, who is killing Twitter. I’ve set up a Mastodon account, but I haven’t really learned to love it yet. I’m going to try Post as well, over the holidays. But it makes me sad to see Twitter slowly losing everything that has made it great.
And speaking of the holidays, some festive shout outs:
To the journalists covering Alberta politics, thank you. In 2021, you did amazing work holding government to account through extraordinary times. In 2022, you hardly had a chance to catch your breath before the border was blockaded, the government was in chaos, the governing party was in chaos, the premier resigned, there was a leadership contest, and then there was a flurry of activity from a new Premier. Here’s hoping you can enjoy a few slow news days in 2023.
To the health care workers holding everything together as we approach the three year anniversary of COVID, immense gratitude. We can all hope you get a reprieve soon.
To all my readers, especially the ones who take a moment to let me know they’re enjoying the newsletter, thank you! I started the substack on a whim, and have been quite surprised it has more than a couple of hundred subscribers. I love hearing from you.
And on that note: this substack is free, and will stay that way. But if you’d like to express your appreciation using a credit card, please join me in making a donation to a local food bank or other charity tackling food insecurity.
Earlier this week, I tagged along with a group of friends and supporters of LiveWire Calgary to do a shift at the Calgary Food Bank. Probably the only group of volunteers that day that had a running commentary going on late stage capitalism while they were working. But seeing the steady flow of food out of the warehouse really brought home the affordability/food insecurity issue for me.
Unless something really wild happens next week, “What Now!?!” is signing off for the holidays. May they be happy, and maybe even a little boring!
Your newsletter is a treasure and a gift Lisa! So enjoy your commentary and your humour. We'll be making a food bank donation in your honour. Thanks for all your efforts too and may your next few weeks be boring! Brenda N.
'This is a rant'
Less of a rant, more of the anguished scream of someone who realizes that he helped create the probable end of what he thought he was always entitled to; government in AB by the frat bros. After years of blind support for Kenney, wailing desperately into the void looks good on him. Just to make sure he knows Smith doesn't care what he thinks, in today's news: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ucp-tracy-allard-civil-liberties-1.6689871
That said, thank you for your insight, analysis, and humor here. Always welcome, and looking forward to reading where you go in 2023.