Calculus
The lowest grade I earned in university was in introductory calculus. All the problems seemed to involve two vehicles driving toward one another at different speeds, and I was supposed to figure out when they’d collide. (Or maybe I wasn’t - it was a long time ago, and a really bad grade).
Watching Alberta politics at the moment has me filled with a bit of the same numb frustration I experienced as a lousy calculus student: why not veer away, slow down, put on the brakes and avoid that collision?
This impending collision, of course, is between the federal and Alberta governments over climate policy. The federal Prius has already collided with the Alberta F-150 over the net-zero electricity grid regulations, leaving solar and wind projects strewn across the landscape in tatters. The federal Tesla delivering a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector is travelling at top speed, and will intersect at some point this fall with the Alberta Hummer covered in “Not ‘til 2050 (and maybe not even then)” bumper stickers.
Just like in the calculus questions of my nightmares, there’s no stopping these vehicles. For both sides, the calculus is clear. (See what I did there?)
The federal Liberals (a) believe sincerely in the need to reduce GHG emissions, which necessarily means addressing the emissions from the oil and gas sector, and (b) have very little to lose politically from colliding with Alberta, and ( c) possibly have something to gain among voters in other provinces by setting themselves up as the party willing to take meaningful action on GHG emissions.
The Alberta UCP (a) believe sincerely that there’s money to be made in producing oil and gas for the next number of years, (b) know that conflict with Trudeau is a winner for them politically and ( c) are having their stance reinforced by the Western Standard/Take Back Alberta segment of their party’s ecosystem at a time when keeping it happy is essential.
So what happens after the Tesla plows into the Hummer? There’s a segment of the UCP base of support that considers this an opportunity: if you really want to leave Canada and set Alberta up as a freedom-loving, carbon-belching, bible-thumping homeland, this is your moment! If you think I’m exaggerating, I’ll direct you to today’s tweet from the head of Take Back Alberta: “Alberta will not obey Ottawa’s draconian climate virtue signalling. If they attempt to enforce it, we will separate. If you don’t believe that is possible, just watch us.”
I’m among those who are skeptical that this is possible. That said, a lot of damage can be done just by seriously entertaining the possibility, as Quebec discovered in the 1970s.
Ironically, all of this may set Pierre Poilievre up to be a hero, bringing Alberta back into the fold by backing away from Trudeau’s climate regulations. But much as that would buy peace between Alberta and Ottawa, it would also set up a whole new calculus, as Canada swaps its Tesla for a dually pickup and embarks on a collision course with much of the rest of the world.
Since the Alberta govt is simply a mouthpiece for the fossil fuel industry industry, this is really a fight between the federal govt and their shareholders. The calculation is simple. The shareholders want to extract as much money as possible before their assets are stranded, while the federal govt is committed to bringing down emissions. My money is on the feds.
Calculus aside, the real collision we are all riding, mostly obliviously, toward, is the collision with climate reality. The natural ecosystems don't give a rat's behind about our progressive lite, hard right little Alberta generated political dustup.
What the planet needs now is good governance......for all of us, today and into the future. That requires, at a bare minimum, that we put down the muskets, wipe off the tribal war paint, and behave as citizens. Smokey here today, and that smoke if it continues, will contribute to the shortening of all our lives.....toxics in the smoke we don't even have names for most likely.........but the problem is global.
It might be fun to substitute belligerent politics for good governance...but its a short term diversion. Nothing Smith does will change the science....and there is no alternative universe for the TBA zealots to retreat to. Time I think to let go of the anger, and start the bargaining.
What we're facing is real.........the UCP alternatives to that reality are just bad theatre. They won't have a long run or win many good reviews. Even in Alberta, this chest thumping and Fed bashing, while the boreal burns, only won office by a mere 3000 votes.
Their actions are rapidly eroding that already slim margin.