Cabinetry

It’s difficult to know who Premier Smith plans to be and how she intends to govern. She is sending many signals, intended to reassure Albertans that she plans to run a centrist government, with no forays into privatized health care or COVID conspiracy nonsense. People concerned about Take Back Alberta or extremism, she warns, are scaremongers intent on continuing the division.

That said, some of the things she’s saying (albeit in a smooth and reassuring tone) don’t quite line up with the moderate message. The forest fires and floods are just things that happen in Alberta; let’s talk about arsonists rather than climate change. We will be talking about the Canada Pension Plan, just as soon as some final report is delivered.

The composition of her Cabinet (and her office) give us some clues about the direction she’s headed.

Here’s my ‘hot take’ on the new Cabinet:

Watch out Ottawa: The two MLAs who had the highest profile as ‘surrogates’ for Smith during the election were Brian Jean and Rebecca Schulz. Both were leadership contestants, and there’s speculation that Jean still has leadership ambitions. Jean is a fierce advocate for oil and gas. Schulz’ most significant accomplishment in Cabinet has been to negotiate the child care agreement with Ottawa. Think of them as the bad cop/good cop team set up to deal with Ottawa on the energy/environment file.

On one hand, it lets these two potential leadership aspirants gain independent profile. On the other hand, it keeps them awfully busy and out of trouble…

A healthy skepticism: Appointing Adriana LaGrange in Health is an, um, interesting choice. At the best of times, health is a tough portfolio. These aren’t the best of times in health care in Alberta (or anywhere else in Canada). The health care workforce has not recovered from the conflicts with the Kenney government and the pandemic. Alberta’s apparent embrace of alternative facts around vaccination doesn’t make it an especially attractive place for health care professionals.

From the outside, it appeared that Jason Copping was able to make a positive difference as Health minister. He carried out orders from the premier’s office (firing Yiu and Hinshaw; dismissing the AHS board). But my impression is that he was able to insulate the health system from some of the worse political impulses, and move forward on a few reforms. It’s not clear that LaGrange will have that same capacity.

Why appoint LaGrange? I think it’s significant that she is not a Calgary MLA. Some of the worst problems in the system are outside the cities. As a Red Deer MLA, LaGrange can focus her attention on the particular problems in smaller centers like Red Deer and Lethbridge, and the crises in rural ER coverage.

With federal legislation over expanding MAID potentially in the offing, it will be interesting to see how LaGrange, whose Catholicism is an important part of her political identity, positions herself and the Alberta system.

Kevin Costner in Finance: I don’t know much about Nate Horner, the new Finance minister. Except he’s not the first Horner to hold the Finance portfolio. Seems like this ranching family plays a significant role in Alberta politics. I’ve watched enough seasons of Yellowstone to start to draw parallels…

On the surface at least, Horner seems like a younger version of Travis Toews. Solid, knows how to rope a calf and balance a spreadsheet. A Kenney loyalist.

Big question is where he stands on withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan. Toews was rumoured to be a big fan. Where does Horner stand on this??

Rajan Sawhney in Advanced Ed: I know a lot of my subscribers work in post-secondary, so a word about this appointment. I think this is about the best news we could hope for. Sawhney was one of the more progressive candidates in the UCP leadership. Nothing in her background suggests that she would be willing to foray into the culture war politics of post-secondary education that we’ve seen south of the border. This is good news for the sector.

A government of (and for?) white men: Three racialized minority Cabinet ministers (Sawhney, Yaseen and Luan). Four women (Sawnhey, Schulz, LaGrange and Fir). So, in a Cabinet of 24, only 6 members are not white men. White guys make up about 40% (or less) of the Alberta population, but a full 75% of the Cabinet. When the legislature sits, they will be taking questions from the most ethnically and gender diverse Opposition Alberta has ever seen. This is going to be an interesting dynamic.

A BIG Cabinet: With a caucus of 48, Smith has appointed half to Cabinet. And there are other jobs still to be distributed (whip, parliamentary secretaries, Speaker). When she won the party leadership with relatively little caucus support, Smith appointed a big Cabinet to try to win friends. Seems she feels the need to repeat this tactic.

What does this tell us about how Smith plans to govern? She hasn’t elevated the TBA folks in her caucus into Cabinet, so she’s not planning to lean in to the extreme. She seems to understand the need to build support in the two big cities, so lots of Calgary and Edmonton Donut Cabinet Ministers, but lots of senior positions to rural/small city folks too. Seems that she plans to continue to walk the fine line between the factions of her party. It has worked for her so far and - especially if Trudeau gives her an opportunity to rally the party against him - might keep her in office for some time.