Breaking: The Alberta Pundit Consensus

Is it a Pivot?

This is a special issue of the newsletter, in which Duane Bratt and I take our friendly argument about whether this is really a pivot out of our Twitter DMs and into your mailbox. 

DB: This (Justice Minister Shandro’s mandate letter) doesn’t look much like a pivot. 

LY:  Remember Rick Bell’s elegant description of a pivot? You plant one foot and then change direction. This is the planted foot! The affordability stuff is the pivot. 

DB: Doing something about inflation is not a pivot. It is actually a consensus position that both the UCP (whether under Premier Kenney or Premier Smith) and the NDP should pursue. Not only that, but the Alberta Government has, because of multi-billion dollar royalties, deep financial tools to defer gas taxes, provide rebates for home heating, or even writing cheques for all Albertans…..But the pursuit of the Sovereignty Act and defending those hurt by COVID rules and promising retribution to those who designed/implemented them was the driving force behind Smith's UCP leadership win. She will not pivot away from these two big issues.

LY: I agree that Smith has no option but to act on her two signature leadership campaign promises: the Sovereignty Act and ‘protecting’ those who choose not to be vaccinated. We will undoubtedly see a Sovereignty Act that doesn’t go nearly as far as what she talked about during the leadership campaign. And there will probably be something on the vaccination front. But even there, I notice that the wording in Minister Shandro’s mandate letter is less specific than I might have expected: “Take any necessary legislative or regulatory steps to prohibit discrimination on the basis of COVID-19 vaccination and/or booster status.” There’s a lot of wiggle room there – I was expecting ‘amend the Alberta Human Rights Code.’ 

DB: I am also struck by the fact that Smith is asking Shandro, as Justice Minister, to take steps to prohibit discrimination on the basis of COVID vaccination status. It was Health Minister Shandro who introduced Alberta’s vaccine mandate (“restrictions exemption program”) in September 2021. Shandro has yet to publicly explain how/when/why his COVID position has changed.  

LY: I’ve been watching for signs of a pivot since the night Smith won the leadership. Her acceptance speech railed against Ottawa and talked about COVID, but she also introduced this idea of ‘strength and compassion’ that grabbed my attention. I think she is following a strategy of trying to make inroads into Calgary’s suburbs by appealing to suburban women, especially moms, by presenting a more compassionate face than the Kenney government did. This is a group that might not follow politics all that closely, and might not care about the Sovereignty Act or even some of the COVID-related issues, but could be open to supporting a party talking about affordability, making reinvestments in education, and talking about compassion rather than fiscal responsibility. 

DB: Yes, we’ve been having our “friendly argument” since Smith’s victory speech after winning the UCP leadership on October 6. While Lisa was grabbed by the ‘strength and compassion’ comments, I noted that Smith was at her most passionate when she railed against the “Notley-Singh-Trudeau alliance” and promising that Alberta will “no longer ask (Ottawa’s) permission to be prosperous.” Governments pursue many different things, but what is the priority of the leader?  

I have no doubt that there are significant elements within the UCP (cabinet, caucus, advisors) telling Smith to stop talking about . But she can’t help herself. It does not take much to get her back to her anti-COVID restrictions beliefs. During her first press conference as Premier, it was a question from Globe and Mail reporter Carrie Tait that led Smith to assert that the unvaccinated “have been the most discriminated-against group that I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime.” It was at the UCP AGM when she told a Rebel Media reporter that she apologizes to those who suffered as a result of COVID restrictions and would investigate how to pardon those who were jailed/fined for violating COVID rules. And it was during an election forum in Brooks-Medicine Hat when she heard an Independence Party candidate praise the knowledge of COVID conspiracy theorists Dr. Paul Alexander, that Smith responded that she was going to invite him to advise her on COVID. As polls indicate, Smith would be politically wise to pivot away from COVID COVID COVID. But she can’t. Because she fundamentally believes that Canadian governments and health care professionals betrayed ordinary people over COVID.  

While we await the release of the Health Minister’s Mandate letter, the Sovereignty Act is referenced in multiple letters. Beyond Shandro’s letter, Energy Minister Peter Guthrie’s first bullet-point is “defend Alberta’s energy interests against federal overreach through a variety of means, including use of the Sovereignty Act if necessary.” Environment Minister Sonya Savage’s first bullet-point is “develop a made-in-Alberta climate strategy and stand up for Alberta’s jurisdiction to manage our resources as it relates to the federal government’s climate plan.”

LY: These are all good points. And as we’ve been having this conversation and more mandate letters are coming out, it’s becoming clear that the “planted” foot of the pivot isn’t moving. So I’ll concede the point that Smith isn’t inclined to talk less about COVID and ‘Alberta First’. But I’ll still be watching what she does with her other foot. As she loosens the purse strings in the name of affordability (including a Dani-Dollars announcement this week?) will she be able to distract less engaged Albertans from her other stances? Because if she can, I think she could be a formidable opponent to Notley in the upcoming election. And if she can’t, her political career will be over (again). 

Thanks for ‘dropping by’ the newsletter! I always enjoy our friendly disagreements.